Modelagem de mobilidade urbana com cadeias de Markov: uma análise das transições entre periferia e centro urbano

Abstract

This article investigates the application of Markov chains in urban mobility modeling, focusing on population redistribution across city regions over a five-year period. Two models were developed: a simplified one with two zones (Periphery and Center) and a more detailed one with five regions (Center, North Zone, East Zone, South Zone, and West Zone). Using stochastic transition matrices, population movements were simulated and stationary distributions were calculated. The results show that both models quickly converge to stable configurations, revealing the ergodic behavior of the systems. A trend of population shift toward peripheral areas, especially the West Zone, was observed. The study concludes that Markov chains are effective tools to support urban planning, allowing anticipation of mobility patterns and guiding public policies in infrastructure, transportation, and housing.