Contratação de trabalhadores no setor público municipal: uma projeção da necessidade demográfica por município brasileiro, 2020 a 2030

Abstract

Since the beginning of the demographic transition, in the 1960s, the composition of the Brazilian population by age has undergone changes. The demographic changes evidenced in the last decades have led to changes in population groups and, consequently, in the demand for public services that these groups generate. On the other hand, the population of public sector workers also ages, which increases the number of workers who will become inactive due to eligibility for retirement benefits, disability or death. Given the above, the present study aimed to estimate the demographic need for hiring municipal public sector workers in Brazil, for the period from 2020 to 2030, considering both the dynamics of workers leaving the activity and the population demand for types of workers. public services at the municipal level (health, education and others). To this end, data from workers in the municipal public sector of the Annual List of Social Information (RAIS, 2018) were used together with data from the Statement of Results of the Actuarial Assessment (DRAA), from the Social Security Secretariat (SPREV, 2020), and of the Munic base, of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, 2019). The main results are that the need to hire new workers will increase between 2020 and 2030, for all professional categories, in addition to being greater in the Southeast and Northeast regions. The demographic need is greater in the Others category, followed by the Education and Health categories. Based on the results obtained, it was concluded that the demographic need for workers in the municipal public sector is affected both by the demographic dynamics of the municipalities and by the dynamics of the population of workers.