Efeitos da concessão do crédito rural no território do Mato Grande (2002-2021)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the economic dynamics derived from agricultural activities developed in the territory of Mato Grande, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, and their relationship with rural credit granted to producers and cooperatives between 2002 and 2021. In this sense, this work will more precisely analyze the effects of rural credit on the Gross Value Added of agriculture in the region. The methodology adopted was time series analysis using the Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration procedures, Granger causality, the Error Correction Vector and the Ordinary Least Squares Method to ascertain the relationship between rural credit over time and the region's GVA. To do this, data was collected on GDP and its components in the region and on total rural credit, defrayal and investment. Data was also collected on the value of agricultural production in the area, with the aim of building a diagnosis of these activities and their relevance to the state, which made it possible to observe the importance of fruit farming in the territory's production value. Over the period examined, there was a significant real reduction in rural credit, as well as in the number of contracts signed in the territory. The Granger Causality methodology showed that rural credit precedes agricultural output in time, in other words, in a unidirectional way, rural credit causes the GVA of agriculture. Finally, it was inferred that the impact of total rural credit on the territory's agricultural output was 2.69%.