Perfis climáticos do Brasil e os diferenciais de mortalidade por doenças sensíveis ao clima

Abstract

This work aims to build a climate typology for Brazilian microregions and investigate mortality from climate-sensitive diseases in the population residing in these homoclimatic regions. Therefore, it was divided into two articles, the first dealing with the climatic typology of Brazilian microregions, and the second with the association between climate-sensitive diseases and the climatic characteristics of the region studied. In the first article, a climate classification was constructed by applying the Grade of Membership (GoM) Method, where homogeneous areas were identified taking into account the meteorological variables: precipitation, relative air humidity, maximum and minimum temperature and wind speed, to application of the method, the variables were categorized as low, moderate and high. The climate profiles indicated the existence of three distinct predominant profiles, namely: Profile 1 – located between the South and Southeast regions of the country, categorized as moderate for all climate variables analyzed. It was the one with the greatest adherence of microregions, having represented 27.1%; Profile 2 – highlighted the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil and concentrated 18.2%. Characterized by low precipitation, moderate and high mixed temperatures, high wind speed and low relative humidity; and Profile 3 - with high precipitation, mixed temperatures between low and high, low wind speed and high relative humidity, whose predominance is the lowest, 14.7%. It aggregated the North region and some microregions located in the South region of Brazil, being subdivided into P3-North (high temperatures) and P3-South (low temperatures). The mixed profiles defined in the model are located in the transition zones from one weather pattern to another. Continuing the proposed study, the second article used this climate typology to investigate the relationship between mortality rates from climate-sensitive diseases and the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian microregions based on the IFDM - Municipal Development Indicator of the Federation of Industry of the Rio de Janeiro, in its three dimensions: Health, Education and Employment & Income. By applying the Kruskal-Wallis and Nemenyi test, it was possible to identify differences between the profiles in terms of Mortality Rates and the socioeconomic conditions of the profiles. In a second moment, the logistic regression model was applied to estimate the odds ratio and evaluate the association between mortality rates, climate variables and the IFDM. Diseases of the circulatory system are influenced by high temperatures, low precipitation, high wind speed and relative humidity, while socioeconomic conditions, it was noticed that general and Health IDFM classified as low to regular also influence the increase in mortality rates . Infectious and parasitic diseases were more likely to occur in profiles with maximum temperature and wind speed categorized as high and low relative humidity. Mortality rates due to diseases of the respiratory system were more likely in those with maximum temperature characterized as low, associated with moderate rainfall and in regular socioeconomic conditions of general IDFM and health. This study aims to contribute to the visibility of climate and public health issues with data that enable assertive interventions of public policies, with a view to improving the quality of life and health of the population.