Indicador epidemiológico de vulnerabilidade a extremos climáticos para região Amazônica e Nordeste brasileiro

Abstract

In the Amazonian region and the Brazilian Northeast, extreme climatic events such as torrential rains and severe droughts are exacerbated against a situation of poverty resulting in an increase the incidence of endemic diseases, water supply problems, and agricultural losses, often leading to greater vulnerability. Thus, the main objective of this study is to construct and analyze an epidemiological vulnerability index associated with extreme climatic indexes for the Brazilian Amazon and the Northeast region and thein mesoregions; area according to the risk characteristics to the climatic trend. For that, different datasets used: meteorological data from Xavier et al. (2015) from a project of the University of Texas and Federal University of Espírito Santo corresponding to the period from 1980 to 2013; health data provided by the Ministry of Health on websites of the System of Information on Mortality (SIM), SUS Hospital Information System (SIH / SUS) of DATASUS and demographic data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Development Program of the United Nations (UNDP). The meteorological data were applied to the software RClimdex, which 21 indices were selected, 10 being related to precipitation and 11 to the temperature according to the meteorological and climatic conditions of each region of this study. For the creation of the epidemiological indicator of vulnerability to climatic extreme, the cumulative normal distribution was used to assign scores varying from 0 to 1 for the calculation of vulnerability components: risk, susceptibility and adaptive capacity. For the analysis, understanding and identification of the susceptible areas to morbimortalities, the quartiles were used. The results showed that the indexes TXx, TNx, TX10p, TX90p, SDII, R20mm, CDD, R95p and PRECPTOT presented the highest trends of climatic changes for Amazonia and Brazilian Northeast, with emphasis on the Sergipe backwoods mesoregion. Although, it has observed high epidemiological vulnerability associated with climatic extreme for the whole region of study, with emphasis on mesoregions climáticos foram as mesorregiões Centro Maranhense, Norte Piauiense, Sudoeste Paraense and Sul de Roraima which revealed very high vulnerability, explained by the high values of adaptive incapacity and high susceptibility. These mesoregions also had high rates of morbidity due to infectious and parasitic diseases, and the respiratory system. This study made it possible to identify the mesoregions of Amazonia and Brazilian Northeast more vulnerable to the epidemiological aspect in the occurrence of extreme events.