Tendências e projeções da mortalidade por Sarcoma de Kaposi no Brasil até 2030

Abstract

Objective: To analyze trends in Kaposi's sarcoma (SK) mortality, projected until 2030, and to analyze the HIV epidemic in Brazil. Methods: Ecological study using data from the Mortality Information System on (KS) deaths in Brazil from 2001 to 2015 and from World Health Organization HIV data for the period 1990 to 2017. The trend was analyzed by regression. Joinpoint, and for the projections Nordpred was used. Results: The mortality rate by (KS) for men and women was 0.046 deaths and 0.025 deaths / 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, in 2015. The annual increase in mortality rates was 6.1% and 2.8%. for males and females, respectively. Projections for 2030 indicate that the mortality rate will increase by 100% compared to 2015. The incidence (APC: 0.9%; 95% CI -1.3; -0.5) and HIV prevalence (APC 2.8%; 95% CI 2.3; 3.3) tended to increase in the period from 2011 to 2017. Mortality tended to decrease, but to a lesser extent in the period from 2000 to 2017 (APC: -0.9%; 95% CI -1.5; -0.4). Conclusion: The tendency of mortality by (KS) is increasing, and may be related to the increased prevalence of HIV and the reduction of the trend of mortality by AIDS in Brazil.