Perfis dos extremos de precipitação e a produtividade agrícola do feijão, milho e mandioca no Rio Grande do Norte

Abstract

Over the years, changes in climate patterns have been the subject of debate in the scientific community, which has emphasized the unpredictable nature of its consequences. The effects of climate change impact the intensification of climate extremes, worrying society since the occurrence of extreme precipitation can have severe effects on the economy, on the social conditions of human beings and on natural ecosystems. The extremes of rainfall deficit have a particularly significant impact on activity related to agriculture which is an important sector in the Brazilian economy, and particularly for the Northeast region of Brazil where 82.6% of the labor force in the field is equivalent to family farming. In this sense, the main objective of the study is to build a typology of extreme precipitation indices in the municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte. In addition, the objective is to analyze the agricultural productivity of beans, corn and cassava among the profiles generated for the municipalities of that state. The main results reveal 4 profiles of precipitation extremes with very clear spatial differences in the state. Two extreme climate profiles (humid and dry) were obtained, with the municipalities characterized as more humid (extreme profile 1 is located in the easternmost area of the state and also in the southwest of the state, an area known as “elephant trunk”. The dry profile is concentrated in the central region of the state and in almost all of its western territory. Transition areas (profile 11 and 22) can be seen dividing these areas considered drier and wetter in Rio Grande do Norte. Regarding the characterization of the studied crops, the results revealed the greater dispersion of the data are evidenced when considering the cultivation of cassava in the state, with this variability associated with the extreme wetter profile.