Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia
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Master Thesis Transição energética e o nordeste brasileiro: uma abordagem regional/local da inserção da Energia Eólica Onshore, usando o método de Diff-in-diff, no período 1998 a 2024(Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2025-09-16) Melo, Ellitamara Alves de Oliveira; Macedo, Luziene Dantas de; Araújo, Juliana Bacelar de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4053362060332959; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7489-9993; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5043599141034024; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1190-1712; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6381238983468805; Mota, Fernando Cezar de Macedo; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6007792964190655; Guedes, João Paulo Martins; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9703-2791; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1790445746970638; Pereira, William Eufrasio Nunes; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2870-4742; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4829543404728309This study aims to analyze the insertion of renewable energy in Brazil’s Northeast, with a particular focus on onshore wind power, and its implications for regional and local development using a multi-period Difference-in-Differences approach. The database comprises panel data for the period from 1998 to 2024, drawing on information from RAIS, IBGE, ANEEL, the Novo Atlas, and IPEA. The econometric model made it possible to identify two distinct phases in the insertion of wind energy in the country, allowing for the evaluation of dynamic effects in a staggered manner over time.The results indicate positive impacts on employment and average income, especially from the period associated with the deepening of the second phase, suggesting greater economic dynamism linked to the expansion of wind energy activity. In addition, Gross Value Added (GVA) followed an upward trajectory throughout the entire period analyzed, reinforcing the relevance of wind energy as a driver of regional productive transformation. Overall, the findings support the initial hypothesis that these impacts differ in intensity and characteristics across the various stages of expansion, highlighting the contribution of this study to the debate on energy transition within the context of regional specificities and territorial impacts.Master Thesis Raça, gênero e mercado de trabalho no Brasil pós-pandemia: desigualdades estruturais e interseccionais(Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2025-08-26) Varela, Thaise da Costa; Araújo, Júlia Rocha; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0379683983138440; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2487883053629911; Guedes, João Paulo Martins; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1790445746970638; Souza, Paola Faria Lucas de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0613042400983925The COVID-19 pandemic deepened historical inequalities in the Brazilian labor market, disproportionately affecting Black women. Data from the Continuous PNAD (2019 and 2022) were used to estimate logistic regression models and apply the Fairlie decomposition method, highlighting that racial and gender inequalities are interdependent and structurally entrenched. Even with similar demographic and educational characteristics, Black women showed a higher likelihood of unemployment and inactivity: in 2022, 48.5% were out of the labor force, compared to 23.1% of White men. The average income of Black women was 52% lower, and the presence of young children increased the risk of unemployment by 16% — an effect opposite to that observed among men, whose risk was reduced. Education proved less protective for Black women than for White women, revealing persistent racial barriers. Although Black men face significant aggravating factors, their unemployment rates were lower than those of Black women. Up to 82% of the difference in unemployment rates between Black women and White men could not be explained by observable variables, suggesting a strong presence of structural discrimination. Moreover, the burden of domestic and care work reinforced the impact of gender on female labor market inactivity.Master Thesis A aplicação do modelo de Lewis na economia brasileira: uma análise do mercado de trabalho dual a partir de dados da PNAD contínua anual de 2023(Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2025-01-29) Mendes, Rodolfo Kelven Rocha; Lourenço, André Luís Cabral de; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6374-7302; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6259328336633690; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0425837912839849; Trovão, Cassiano José Bezerra Marques; Souza, Leonardo Flauzino deThis study aims to analyze the dynamics of the Brazilian labor market through the theoretical framework of Lewis's dual economy model, focusing on the separation between the traditional and modern sectors. To achieve this, a methodology was developed to create an indicator capable of differentiating these sectors using microdata from the 2023 annual PNAD Contínua survey. The initial results provide a new perspective on the labor market, highlighting the country's economic inequality, which reflects structural characteristics of underdevelopment. These findings underscore the importance of public policies aimed at fostering modernization and productive inclusion.Master Thesis Dois ensaios sobre especulação: aspectos teóricos e institucionais(Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2024-12-20) Sena, Valéria Cristina de Souza Lima Galvão de; Bezerra, Márcia Maria de Oliveira; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6400391921751194; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6456163702304825; Mendonça, Ana Rosa Ribeiro de; Roos, Breno CarvalhoThe work consists of two essays on speculation, considering theoretical and institutional aspects on the subject. The first of them deals with Keynes' theories and the changes they undergo over time, aiming to identify some of the perspectives that his writings offer, explaining speculation: i) in organized commodity markets; ii) considering its effects in systemic terms. The reading of the works points to the change in the view of the speculative agent, which contributes to Keynes' analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of speculation in investment markets in the General Theory, potential generators of instability and crises. The second essay addresses the organized markets in the United States and Brazil and aims to resort to the literature to recover some speculative operations that occurred at different times in the American and Brazilian markets. Considering that speculation is part of the process of organization of these markets, the examination of speculative practices can provide indications about aspects of the evolution and degree of sophistication of these institutions over time in both countries.Master Thesis A desigualdade e a concentração na distribuição de renda e riqueza no Brasil e o imposto de renda das pessoas físicas(Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2025-01-30) Costa, José Moreira; Trovão, Cassiano José Bezerra Marques; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1173432616045632; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4326142368958661; Lourenço, André Luís Cabral de; Orair, Rodrigo Octavio; Leite, Fabricio PitomboThis research seeks, through data from income tax returns, to analyze the inequality in the distribution of income and wealth in Brazil, examine the tax benefits granted in income taxation, relate the current income taxation system to the inequality in its distribution and propose a new arrangement for the tax system that is progressive in terms of income taxation. The analysis of the data led to the conclusion: 1) that there is a significant inequality in the distribution of income and wealth with extreme concentration in the highest strata in Brazil; 2) that this situation is fostered by a regressive income taxation system, which, with enormous tax benefits granted to capital income, favors the increase in inequality and the extreme concentration of income and wealth in the richest strata of society; and; 3) that a reform of the income tax system, which eliminates all tax benefits and makes it progressive, like the system proposed in this work, is a way to reduce this injustice.Master Thesis Uma análise do sistema tributário brasileiro e a necessidade de reforma(Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2023-10-30) Viana, Willian de Queiroz; Pereira, William Eufrasio Nunes; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2870-4742; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4829543404728309; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2366435896801160; Morais, Ana Cristina dos Santos; Silva, Ângelo MagalhãesThis dissertation presents a critical analysis of the current Brazilian tax system, highlighting its shortcomings and impact on social inequality. The main objective is to discuss the need for tax reforms to promote greater social justice and present the proposals being discussed in congress and in society at large. The taxation of goods and services has some flaws, such as the incidence of taxes on the same base, which generates inefficiencies in the productive sector and impacts the productivity of companies in the country. Taxation on payroll can also have negative impacts on the economy, such as reducing the supply of formal jobs and incentivizing informality. The work also emphasizes the importance of fiscal education to disseminate information and concepts about fiscal management and to promote social participation in the processes of application and monitoring of public resources. The proposals in Congress, along with the ANFIP's solidarity reform, aim to address the aforementioned problems by offering alternatives to reduce income inequality through changes in tax rates or streamlining the tax system. Finally, the work emphasizes that tax reform must be carefully planned and executed to minimize possible negative impacts, involving relevant stakeholders in the process of formulation and implementation. A successful tax reform must be based on evidence and careful analysis of the potential impact on different sectors of the economy and social groups. The work concludes that income taxation should be more progressive, with higher taxes levied on the wealthier and lower on the poorer. Additionally, it is necessary to eliminate the distortions of the presumed and actual profit regimes and align effective rates with statutory rates provided by law.Master Thesis Determinantes do impacto ambiental com base no STIRPAT: aplicação do modelo autorregressivo com defasagens distribuídas em painel(Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2024-10-03) Custódio, Jeane do Nascimento; Alves, Janaina da Silva; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8841368848220253; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4143799443954439; Guedes, João Paulo Martins; Andrade, Daniel CaixetaThe improvements from economic progress have been drastic and undeniable over the past decades. At no other time in human history have there been such significant changes, including poverty reduction, favorable demographic conditions, and improvements in health, education, and well-being indicators. However, over the past eight decades, the prevailing production and consumption system has used renewable and non-renewable natural resources intensively and extensively, reaching unprecedented levels in history. Economic growth has occurred at the expense of the environment, through the unsustainable use of natural resources, increased greenhouse gas emissions, and biodiversity loss. Thus, alongside social and economic discussions, environmental issues have received significant attention, and the environmental impact of economic growth has raised questions about reconciling current development models with nature preservation. Using the STIRPAT methodology (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology), this study aims to investigate the environmental impact of population, affluence, and technology variables across selected groups of high, middle, and low-income countries from 1990 to 2021. The primary goal of the research is to analyze the main drivers of environmental impact in countries at different development levels and examine how the structure of productive sectors can affect the environment. To achieve these goals, this research applies the PMG-ARDL econometric methodology, which allows for the analysis of short- and long-term relationships between variables while capturing the heterogeneity of panel units, which may have different temporal dynamics. Given this, the hypothesis underlying this work is that the drivers of environmental impact have distinct effects depending on a country’s development level. For all groups, affluence plays a significant role in determining environmental drivers, primarily as economic growth is based on resource-intensive productive activities. Among the main findings, in high-income countries, economic growth and fossil fuel use are the main contributors to environmental degradation. In middle-income countries, degradation is driven by increased productive activities, population growth, and non-renewable energy use. For low-income countries, population is the main environmental impact driver, with affluence showing little impact. In high- and middle-income countries, renewable energy consumption is found to have a negative relationship with the ecological footprint, as does the service sector in high- and low-income countries. Overall, the models validate STIRPAT’s assumptions: affluence or economic growth is a key environmental impact driver for highand middle-income countries, while population is the primary driver for low-income countries.Master Thesis Resiliência no mercado de trabalho formal no Nordeste brasileiro: o uso da análise de sobrevivência para estimar a permanência nos postos de trabalho nos anos de 2019 e 2021(Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2024-02-29) Torres, Vagner dos Santos; Trovão, Cassiano José Bezerra Marques; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1173432616045632; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5048-7150; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5541918964266769; Alves, Janaina da Silva; Loural, Marcelo SartorioThe research aims to analyze the job tenure in the Brazilian Northeast in the years 2019 and 2021. It is hypothesized that the effects of the pandemic may have negatively impacted job tenure, especially worsening the situation of more vulnerable workers (northeasterners, women, elderly, young people, and those with lower qualifications). To this end, the survival analysis method is used based on the Kaplan-Meier estimators and the Cox regression model, applied to data collected from the RAIS (Annual Social Information Report) for the years 2019 and 2021. The results indicate a severe reduction in job tenure for northeastern workers in 2021. Female, non-black, over 50 years old, with higher education, income above three minimum wages, workers in the industry, and residents of the state of Sergipe had the highest probability of job survival during the period. However, the data show a low relative participation of women in the formal labor market of the region. Additionally, black workers, even though they are the majority in the market, are more likely to lose their jobs compared to non-black workers. Furthermore, the rate of workers with a high level of education is still low in the Northeast. Finally, the results point to the importance of developing and implementing public policies to promote job retention, especially those aimed at gender and racial equality in the region.Master Thesis Diferencial compensatório ou segmentação? Uma análise do mercado de trabalho brasileiro baseada no modelo de mudança endógena com cópulas(Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2024-08-14) Monteiro, Raphael Lopes; Trovão, Cassiano José Bezerra Marques; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1173432616045632; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8701730129852515; André, Diego de Maria; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3142-8336; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6480130040427049; Maia, Alexandre GoriThis study investigates income disparities between formal and informal individuals using a recent methodology that provides robust results to assess whether there is evidence of labor market segmentation in Brazil or if there are compensating advantages that justify individuals preference for informal employment. Utilizing data from the Continuous PNAD (National Continuous Household Survey) of 2023 and an endogenous switching regression model with copulas, the study separately controls for selection bias among formal and informal workers and explores the Average Treatment Effect (ATE). Additionally, the estimates for 2023 were replicated for the years 2018 to 2022 to check for patterns over time. This enables an analysis of potential monetary and non-monetary compensating differences between formal and informal individuals in the country during this period. For formal and informal workers in the public sector, private sector, and domestic services, the selection bias analysis provides evidence favorable to the existence of a negative compensating differential in formal work, indicating that this group tends to accept a reduction in net income in exchange for labor benefits. Furthermore, after controlling for observed and unobserved characteristics, the ATE reveals that informal individuals still earn, on average, 6.56% less. This suggests that, beyond the absence of labor rights, informal workers in the public, private, and domestic sectors tend to face monetary penalties, indicating the existence of market segmentation for this subset of workers. In contrast, for the self-employed individuals and employers, selection bias is the main factor explaining the income disparity, indicating that individual characteristics account for a significant portion of the income difference. When controlling for both observable and unobservable characteristics, the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) reveals that informal self-employed individuals or employers earn, on average, 1.85% more than formal individuals. However, this result should be interpreted with caution, since the confidence interval is not statistically significant, suggesting that the impact of informality in this group is more uncertain or nonexistent. Additionally, the analysis of data from previous years (2018-2022) reveals that the income of informal self-employed individuals and employers tends to be more sensitive during years of low economic dynamism, suggesting greater instability for this group. In summary, the study demonstrates that informality in Brazil is associated with a penalty in labor income for those employed in the public sector, private sector, and domestic services, while for employers and self-employed individuals, a slight advantage can be observed for informal individuals, although they appear more vulnerable to economic fluctuations. Overall, the separate analysis of selection bias and the average treatment effect contributes to a deeper understanding of income disparities and informs the formulation of public policies aimed at reducing informality and income inequalities in the labor market.Master Thesis Inovações financeiras na era digital e suas implicações para a estabilidade financeira à luz da teoria Minskyana(Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2024-02-29) Costa, Jefferson de Souza; Trovão, Cassiano José Bezerra Marques; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1173432616045632; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5645091207767027; Lourenço, Andre Luís Cabral de; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6374-7302; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6259328336633690; Souza, Leonardo Flauzino deCapitalist economies go through economic cycles, alternating between moments of prosperity, recessions and depressions. However, these processes have intensified to the extent that financials systems have become more deregulated, which has contributed to the expansion of debts, especially in the banking system. In parallel with these waves of deregulation, especially after 1960, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) developed, a central element in the process of digitizing the economy. In this context, financial technologies emerge, structured in decentralized financials systems, as well as so-called digital currencies, which materialize the expansion of financial asset and credit markets in the digital sphere, crypto-assets and the alternative credit ecosystem (Fintechs and Techfins), respectively. In this sense, it is argued that 1) it is essential to investigate whether financial technologies promote stable monetary expansion and 2) that the postKeynesian Minskyan theoretical framework can be used as a tool for analyzing and proposing economic policy to mitigate the effects of the instability of these markets and their repercussions on the real economy. The hypothesis presented here is that the decentralization, high volatility and low liquidity characteristics of financial markets in the digital age lead economic agents to take even riskier positions as a result of monetary expansion that is not protected by the monetary authorities.