Determinantes da manutenção do emprego em tempos de Indústria 4.0: o caso da agropecuária no Brasil

Abstract

The insertion of information and communication technologies can cause imbalances between labor supply and demand. Recent studies show that in Brazil, one of the sectors most impacted by automation processes will be the agricultural sector. In this sense, the aim of this study was to investigate the determinants of job retention for agricultural workers in the Industry 4.0 era. For this purpose, a logistic regression model was used to estimate the probability of a given worker being employed, given a set of explanatory variables. This study innovated by incorporating the probabilities of automation associated with occupations estimated by Frey and Osborne (2013), converted to the Brazilian labor market by Lima and Almeida (2019) as an explanatory variable for the employability of agricultural workers. The database used in this research was the RAIS year 2019. The main results indicate that education, employment tenure, and income positively impact the probability of an individual being employed in all five Brazilian regions. Meanwhile, individuals associated with occupations that have a high probability of automation have an expected probability of being employed lower than those associated with low probability. Therefore, the results reinforce the need for investment in professional qualification to provide workers with skills aligned with the needs of contemporary agriculture.