Comparação do método determinístico e estocástico aplicado ao cálculo do fundo garantidor de benefícios de riscos nos Regimes Próprios de Previdência Social

Abstract

In the scope of Social Security, deterministic methodologies are commonly used for the calculation of mathematical reserves, which is characterized by being a method that uses mathematical expressions to achieve the punctual result of the expected value. On the other hand, the stochastic methodology, although not widely used, can achieve the same results produced by the deterministic methodology. In order to make comparisons between these methods, Normative Instruction No. 3 of 2018 was used as an object of study, which established the obligation to establish a Benefit Guarantee Fund (FGB) for certain types of benefits, including disability retirement ( and the resulting death benefit) and the death benefit of active insured persons. Thus, the calculation of the FGB through the two proposed methods was demonstrated, and then the results of the calculations were presented. It was evident that both methods result in the same expected value. However, the stochastic method stood out for also making available studies of the variability of results, allowing decision-making to manage the risks of actuarial deficit due to the inherent randomness of the calculations.