Determinantes da Microcefalia no Nordeste: uma análise econométrica-espacial para a epidemia de 2016

Abstract

Although it is still uncommon, it has become increasingly necessary to analyze healthrelated phenomena from a multidisciplinary perspective, in order to capture its various aspects and determinants. The interrelationships between such phenomena and derivatives from applied social sciences have been indicated since the Ancient Age and have been increasingly explored in empirical research. The present work has as object of study a recent epidemic of microcephaly and seeks to analyze the impact of the main determinants of the social, economic, environmental, and climatic order on the disease, as well as its distribution in space. In order to identify the presence of association patterns, to verify which are the main determinants that affect the incidence of the disease and to analyze their individual effect, as well as possible overflow effects. The research has a geographical profile, the Northeast region because, in addition to being the epicenter of the epidemic, it was the region that concentrates the vast majority of confirmed cases in the national territory. The year 2016 was chosen, given the availability of data, and because it was the period in which there was the largest number of cases in the entire historical series. To this end, Exploratory Analysis of Spatial Data (AEDE) will be used as a methodological tool, in addition to spatial econometrics techniques, such as the Tobit method with spatial dependence. Among the main selected results, the need to promote changes in environmental and social conditions is highlighted, given the association of the disease with factors such as poverty and inequality. In addition, there were overflowing effects with respect to environmental, socioeconomic, and health expenditure conditions. Therefore, the importance of integrated public policy operations between the administrative spheres is evident, in order to enhance the effect of these..