Resiliência no mercado de trabalho formal no Nordeste brasileiro: o uso da análise de sobrevivência para estimar a permanência nos postos de trabalho nos anos de 2019 e 2021

Abstract

The research aims to analyze the job tenure in the Brazilian Northeast in the years 2019 and 2021. It is hypothesized that the effects of the pandemic may have negatively impacted job tenure, especially worsening the situation of more vulnerable workers (northeasterners, women, elderly, young people, and those with lower qualifications). To this end, the survival analysis method is used based on the Kaplan-Meier estimators and the Cox regression model, applied to data collected from the RAIS (Annual Social Information Report) for the years 2019 and 2021. The results indicate a severe reduction in job tenure for northeastern workers in 2021. Female, non-black, over 50 years old, with higher education, income above three minimum wages, workers in the industry, and residents of the state of Sergipe had the highest probability of job survival during the period. However, the data show a low relative participation of women in the formal labor market of the region. Additionally, black workers, even though they are the majority in the market, are more likely to lose their jobs compared to non-black workers. Furthermore, the rate of workers with a high level of education is still low in the Northeast. Finally, the results point to the importance of developing and implementing public policies to promote job retention, especially those aimed at gender and racial equality in the region.