Projeções e tendências da mortalidade por câncer de pulmão, traqueia e brônquios no Brasil

Abstract

Neoplasms represent the second cause of death worldwide. Among them, lung cancer stands out as the most common of all malignant tumors and a major cause of death among men and women in developed countries. The aim of this study is to analyze the trend of mortality from lung cancer from 1998 to 2012 and to realize prediction of mortality by the year 2032. This is an ecological study of mixed type that evaluated the mortality rate lung cancer noting the age of the population, as well as the place of residence of these deaths considering a historical series of 15 years. The predictions of each period were calculated using the model age - period - cohort Nordpred program in software R. The mortality trend analysis was performed using the Joinpoint Regression Program software. The Annual Percentage Chance (APC) was used to assess the trend of each segment analyzed and estimating statistically significant values considering a 95% confidence level. In addition, we evaluated whether changes in the number of deaths are related to the population or the risk of developing lung cancer. In Brazil 2,237,346 deaths were due to cancer in the period from January 1 1998 to December 31, 2012 and 273,357 (12.21%) were from lung cancer. The age group with the highest number of deaths in both men and women, was understood by persons aged greater than or equal to 60 years. The analysis by Joinpoint showed significant reduction in the standardized mortality rate for the entire Brazilian territory, as well as in all regions for men. For women, the North tended to stability with subsequent joinpoint in 2015 and a significant reduction trend. But the analysis revealed that both Brazil and to other regions, except the North, there was a trend of significant increase and presence of joinpoint with subsequent period of stability. However, these changes in men and women will be related to the size or to change the age of the population. We conclude that in the period investigated, considering men and women, there will be differences in mortality from lung cancer in Brazil and the Brazilian regions. And, among other factors, this change will have regard to the size and age of the study population.