Riscos e incertezas em produtos digitais: um estudo de caso no varejo farmacêutico

Abstract

The scenario of pharmaceutical retail in Brazil, especially in the post-pandemic context, has presented significant challenges, driving the need for technological innovations to maintain competitiveness. Digital transformation has proven to be a fundamental strategy for the growth and sustainability of the sector. This study aims to analyze the risks and uncertainties of a recurring digital product through Monte Carlo Simulation and Sensitivity Analysis, as well as to identify and propose best practices to enhance the product's outcomes. The research, applied in nature and descriptive in objective, utilized the modeling and simulation method and case study in a quantitative and qualitative approach. Monte Carlo Simulation was applied to analyze the probabilities of success and the main risks associated with the digital product. Sensitivity analysis identified the input variables with the greatest impact on the final result, highlighting efficiency rate and churn of existing customers as the most influential. The results showed that the probability of reaching the target of 156,000 active subscriptions by the end of 2024 is only 2.47%, while the probability of achieving the target of R$ 46,000,000.00 in recurring revenue is 13.15%. The main sensitive variables identified were the efficiency rate, with a sensitivity of 32.2%, and the churn (subscription cancellation rate) of existing customers, with a sensitivity of about - 24.7%. These results highlight the need for strategic adjustments to increase predictability and reduce uncertainty. The combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis ensures that the projections are realistic and based on a comprehensive understanding of the operational context. The conclusions of this study provide valuable insights for decision-making, risk mitigation, and improvement strategies, contributing to the success of the digital product.