Análises da execução orçamentária do município de Natal - RN (2002-2018) sob a ótica da Teoria do Equilíbrio Pontuado

Abstract

The budget is a planning tool that public managers use to set targets for public expenditures. Socio-economic and fiscal policies are defined, and the allocation of resources to meet social and administrative rights is indicated, among others. This investigation has the objective of analyzing if the decision-making process concerning the budget execution of the municipality of Natal (RN), from 2002 to 2018, were done based on stable periods or sudden changes (atypical) under the support of the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory. This study uses the results evaluation method in the data extracted from the website of the National Treasury Secretariat (NTS) and updated to the date of April 30, 2020. The results indicated that the decision making in budget execution were done based on stable periods for total revenue, total expenditure, personal and burdens and other current expenditures. The allocation of resources in interest and debt charges, capital expenditure on investments and debt amortization occurred in an atypical manner (sudden changes). The decisions regarding fifteen expenditures for government functions indicated allocations based on sudden (atypical) changes to the functions: judicial/essential to justice; administration; urbanism; housing; commerce and services and special charges. The functions: legislative; security; social assistance; social welfare; health; education; culture; urbanism and environmental management were stable. In analyzing the execution of the fifteen government functions, the results pointed to atypical allocations (leptocurtic distribution). This result indicates a lack of budgetary policy in the allocation of resources in expenditures by government functions, given that there were no situations in the political-institutional scenario that justified such changes. The research contributes to the increase in the literature on public budget decision-making, as well as helping public managers to reflect on the planning and execution of their budgets. It is concluded that this study can be used as a basis for public managers to plan their budgets in budget allocations for expenditures by government functions.