Eficácia da execução orçamentária (2022/2024) dos estados de Pernambuco (PE), Paraíba (PB) e Rio Grande do Norte com o suporte da teoria do contribuinte/usuário dos recursos públicos

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the ideal and real situation of the budget execution effectiveness of the States of Pernambuco (PE), Paraíba (PB) and Rio Grande do Norte (RN) with the support of the Theory of the Taxpayer/User of Public Resources, in the years 2022 to 2024. The results revealed that in the effectiveness of budget management, Paraíba consistently presented rates higher than the ideal parameter in all years analyzed. This behavior indicates that the State has managed to manage the budget effectively, exceeding the expectations initially established. Rio Grande do Norte, in turn, maintained a positive performance in 2022 (1.009) and 2023 (1.026), but stabilized at the ideal level in 2024 (1.000), signaling an adjustment in the balance between the forecast and the budget execution. Pernambuco, on the other hand, showed stability in the three years, with an index of 1.000 in 2022 and 2023, and a slight increase in 2024 (1.012), demonstrating a budget management quite aligned with the forecast, with small variations. Regarding the effectiveness of budget revenue, Paraíba stands out, which, in 2022, collected 10.7% above the forecast, and, although it registered a reduction in the following years, maintained a performance above the ideal. Rio Grande do Norte also demonstrated significant revenue collection capacity, especially in 2023, when it exceeded the expected revenue by 8.1%, although in 2024 it recorded a below-ideal result (0.952), indicating a possible revenue shortfall or greater rigor in the initial forecast. Pernambuco remained stable and strictly adherent to the forecast in the first two years (1.000), but showed a slight reduction in 2024 (0.955), signaling a slight difficulty in realizing revenue as planned. In terms of budget expenditure effectiveness, the three states presented belowideal rates over the years, indicating that they were unable to fully execute the expected budget allocations. Regarding the effectiveness of the financial resources used, it can be seen that Pernambuco maintained the best performance among the states analyzed, with indexes close to 1.000 over the three years, reaching 0.981 in 2022 and 2023, and a slight reduction to 0.969 in 2024, which reveals efficiency in the use of available resources. Paraíba showed a growth trajectory in this indicator, going from 0.881 in 2022 to 0.926 in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the use of financial resources. Rio Grande do Norte, in turn, maintained relative stability, varying from 0.913 in 2022 to 0.924 in 2024. In general, it can be seen that Paraíba stands out with regard to the effectiveness in revenue collection and budget management, although it still has difficulties in fully executing expenses. Rio Grande do Norte showed a balanced performance, with specific advances, but a negative reversal in revenue efficiency in 2024. Pernambuco, on the other hand, proved to be more conservative and stable in most indicators, standing out for its good management of financial resources, although with a slight downward trend in the efficiency of expenditure execution in the last year analyzed.