Moeda e centro-periferia no dólar flexível: o real brasileiro na posição de moeda periférica (2000-2017)

Abstract

The work starts from the classical Latin American structuralist tradition, particularly in the center-periphery relationship based on technical progress. In this way, this theory leaves a gap to analyze this relationship based on the international monetary dimension. With the changes in the International Monetary System with the fall of the Bretton Woods regime in 1960/1970 there is a discussion about the relevance of the current IMS to a center-periphery relationship. In the current international monetary regime denominated Flexible Dollar it presents itself as a special dimension to analyze the relation centerperiphery from the hierarchy of currencies. This hierarchy is based on the liquidity of the currencies at the international level and is structured from the dollar at the core of the system, followed by the euro, among other central currencies and on the basis of this system are the peripheral currencies. This hierarchy is problematic for the countries of peripheral currencies, particularly the vulnerabilities such as: tendency of instabilities in the exchange rate and interest rate, speculative tendency and increase of international reserves. While it is problematic: does the international position of peripheral currency of Brazil impact on problems for the country? The hypothesis used for the development of the work is that the peripheral currency position of the Brazilian real impacts on macroeconomic problems. In this way, the general objective of the research is to analyze the potential problems for Brazil by its position of peripheral currency in world scope in the period 2000-2017. The methodology used for the work is bibliographical, descriptive and explanatory of a qualitative and quantitative nature based on data from the Central Bank of Brazil. It is concluded that, during the period of analysis, Brazil experienced intense instabilities in the exchange rate and the basic interest rate (SELIC), an increase in international reserves mainly due to the financial account and a portfolio, in which, according to the theory restricts the autonomy of economic policies.