Impacto na viabilidade econômica de um sistema fotovoltaico de geração distribuída em Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, após vigência da Lei 14.300/2022

Abstract

Brazil has faced several periods of drought that severely impacted the stability of the electricity supply. In 2022, once again, Brazil experienced the possibility of a shortage of light due to the water crisis, leading to an annual average tariff per MWh reaching the peak of 686.4 Brazilian reais. Enterprises of all sizes have been grappling with the high tariffs charged by distributors. This study aims to assess the impact of Law 14,300/2022 on the economic feasibility of installing photovoltaic systems of three different sizes (4kWp, 30kWp, and 300kWp) in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, as an alternative to high tariffs. To provide a comprehensive analysis, the research examines the profitability of each sizing in two distinct scenarios: before and after the enactment of the mentioned law. The evaluation process covers proper system sizing, projection of associated costs, and calculation of the expected cash flow. Viability analysis is conducted using tools such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Discounted Payback, and Sensitivity Analysis. The study reveals that, in smaller systems, the financial difference between scenarios is relatively small, while in larger systems (30kWp and 300kWp), the compensation for availability costs does not offset the negative impact of the non-compensable TUSD wire B, favoring the pre-law scenario. In summary, Law 14,300/2022 had a significantly negative impact on investments in photovoltaic systems, with smaller systems being less affected. Despite the challenges, all cash flows analyzed showed positive results over 25 years, indicating that investment in this technology remains viable.