O mercado de trabalho no Semiárido Setentrional na pandemia da COVID-19

Abstract

The Northern Semiarid (SS) is a region located in Northeastern Brazil, characterized by a large population volume and a dry and arid climate. During the 2000s, the region's economy has advanced with industrialization, exports, and the implementation of public policies that have changed the lives of the population, such as the Bolsa Família Program and the Luz para Todos Program. As of 2015, the region's economic situation has deteriorated, and as of 2020, with the arrival of the COVID-19 Pandemic, new challenges have emerged. The objective of the present study is to analyze the labor market in the Northern Semiarid before and during the Covid-19 pandemic, considering the differences between the Units of the Federation that make up the region. The data source used is PNAD-Continuous, referring to the 3rd quarters of 2019, 2020 and 2021, which are quarters that capture the scenario before the arrival of Covid-19 and the first and second year of the pandemic. Since the PNAD-Continuous does not have coverage at the municipal level, a proxy was used to identify the geographic regions belonging to the SS. The results show worsening in key labor market indicators in the region during the pandemic. In Q3 2019, 49.0% of the SS working-age population was out of the labor force. One year later, with the pandemic, there was the expulsion of 1.1 million workers from the labor force, with the participation rate reaching a value of 43.9%. There is a slight recovery in Q3 2021, when the rate stands at 48.3%, but still lower than before the pandemic. In terms of unemployment, the SS unemployment rate worsens in 2020 (15.4%) and recovers in 2021 (14.6%), but still worse than before the pandemic (12.4%). Although the entire region was affected by the pandemic, there are differences between the states that make up the SS. In the micro-regions of the SS belonging to Rio Grande do Norte and Pernambuco was where the highest levels of unemployment were observed in Q3 2020, with unemployment rates of 18.5% and 18.3%, respectively. The lowest vacancy rate in Q3 2020 was observed in the SS region located in Ceará. When the combined rate of unemployment and underemployment due to insufficient hours worked was evaluated, the SS microregion located in Piauí presented the worst scenario, reaching 36.1% in Q3 2020. The different results in the labor market in the UF that make up the SS point to possible differences in the way public policies in action before the pandemic may have mitigated its negative impacts. Given the worsening of labor market indicators in the Northern Semiarid region, an increase in intra-regional inequality and in relation to the rest of the country is expected. Finally, we emphasize the need for the urgent resumption of public policies aimed at the socio-demographic and economic reality of the region.